By Independent News Roundup
Foreign Affairs, the influential Council on Foreign Relations’ bi-monthly magazine, published an intriguing article in late October titled “Losing the Swing States: Washington Is Driving the BRICS to Become an Anti-American Bloc”. It was co-authored by the CEO of the Center for a New American Security think tank and his Research Associate. The gist of their article is that Trump 2.0 has recklessly worsened the US’ ties with BRICS members India, Brazil, and South Africa at the risk of radicalizing their foreign policies.
They can’t think of a cogent explanation for why he did the first (though it’s arguably punishment for India refusing to subordinate itself as the US), posit that the second is out of solidarity with his jailed ally Jair Bolsonaro, and believe that the third is connected to concerns over the Boers. While they acknowledge that the US has some legitimate reasons to be upset with all three, they’re still of the view that Trump has gone way too far in worsening ties with them, which harms the US’ interests.
Accordingly, their article warns that India, Brazil, and South Africa could turbocharge China and Russia’s speculative goal of weaponizing BRICS against the West, which could lead to them more actively participating in its unofficial de-dollarization policies and creation of alternative financial platforms. This could result in the further loss of Western financial institutions’ influence, thus “weakening a key pillar of American clout and the effectiveness of Washington’s sanctions.” Here are five background briefings:
* 1 November 2024: “Did The Latest BRICS Summit Achieve Anything Of Tangible Significance At All?”
* 10 February 2025: “Trump’s Pressure Campaign Against South Africa Is About More Than Just The Boers”
* 7 March 2025: “De-Dollarization Was Always More Of A Political Slogan Than A Pecuniary Fact”
* 25 July 2025: “Trump’s Campaign Against Brazil Is About More Than Bolsonaro, Bilateral Trade, & BRICS”
* 31 July 2025: “Trump Is Hellbent On Derailing India’s Rise As A Great Power”
As can be seen, the US’ worsening of ties with India, Brazil, and South Africa under Trump 2.0 is driven by ulterior motives in all three cases, while BRICS – which is superficially one of the reasons behind Trump’s policy decision – actually isn’t the anti-Western powerhouse that many believe that it is. The last point is the most relevant to Foreign Affairs’ article since it challenges the premise that BRICS could pose an even greater threat to the West than it supposedly already does if the aforesaid ties further worsen.
Nevertheless, there’s merit to their argument that the US should enter into rapprochements with them (such as it might soon do with Brazil and India), all while acknowledging that “no multi-aligned country will suddenly go all in with the United States.” Fears about BRICS speeding up de-dollarization processes and quickly building alternative financial platforms that replace Western ones were never all that credible, so this wouldn’t offset those scenarios, but it would still advance the US’ strategic interests.
Trump’s bullying risks breeding resentment that could materialize in non-BRICS-related forms that harm other US interests even more with time. India might refuse to help jointly manage China in the region, Brazil could expand agricultural and resource cooperation with China in ways that further accelerate the latter’s rise, and South Africa’s continued defiance could inspire other African states to resist US bullying too. It’s therefore better for the US’ strategic interests that it moderates its approach towards all three.
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