By Independent News Roundup
A popular Ukrainian media outlet, the Kyiv Independent, revived the narrative of Russia’s unreliability as an ally after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amidst the ongoing US-Israeli campaign against Iran. The narrative is simple and it’s that Russia cannot be depended upon as supposedly proven by Assad’s downfall in December 2024, Maduro’s capture a little more than a year later, and now Khamenei’s killing. The reality is a lot more nuanced, however, since Russia was never any of these countries’ military ally.
The only ones that it has mutual defense obligations to are the several former Soviet Republics of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO): Armenia (which has suspended its membership amidst its pro-Western pivot), Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. It also has similar obligations to the former Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia that Russia recognized as independent states in 2008 after the Five-Day War that August.
Nevertheless, there’s still a perception among many observers that Russia is allied with Iran, which is due to top “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” (NRPR) influencers creating such an alternative reality over the years through what can be described as the “Potemkinist” soft power policy. Russia’s “soft power supervisors”, or the members of its state media, officialdom, and conference organizers who are in touch with them, didn’t correct them since they thought that it made Russia look good. That was clearly a mistake:
* 10 May 2018: “President Putin On Israel: Quotes From The Kremlin Website (2000-2018)”
* 19 October 2024: “Why Do False Perceptions About Russian Policy Towards Israel Continue To Proliferate?”
* 12 December 2024: “Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis”
* 19 January 2025: “The Russian-Iranian Partnership Might Be A Game-Changer, But Only For Gas, Not Geopolitics”
* 16 January 2026: “’Potemkinism’ Is Responsible For False Perceptions Of Russia’s Unreliability”
These analyses confirm Putin’s proud lifelong philo-Semitism, his associated decision not to support the “Resistance Axis” during the West Asian Wars that followed October 7th nor militarily ally with Iran either, and “Potemkinism’s” counterproductive consequences. Regarding the last one in this context, it concerns the false expectations that this inspired about Russia’s commitment to Iran, which inevitably led to deep disappointment that then made folks susceptible to anti-Russian narratives like the Kyiv Independent’s.
Such narratives as the one about its unreliability as an ally are debunked by facts. Recalling the earlier-mentioned five CSTO allies that Russia has mutual defense obligations to, it: helped Armenia deter a Turkish invasion through its base in border city of Gyumri; is suspected of helping Belarus quell summer 2020’s Color Revolution; helped restore constitutional order in Kazakhstan in January 2022; aided Kyrgyzstan after its several Color Revolutions; and defends Tajikistan from Afghan-emanating terrorists.
By contrast, Russia didn’t save Assad, Maduro, or the Ayatollah because it never agreed to, and all claims that it’s their countries’ ally are bonafide “Potemkinism”, or nothing but an alternative reality. In the objectively existing reality in which International Relations are unfolding, Russia has proven its reliability as an ally to the five countries that comprise the CSTO. Few friends and foes alike remember or even know about this, however, since most top NRPR influencers are “Potemkinists” who prefer fabulism over facts.
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