Yesterday was a particularly busy day for American diplomacy. U.S. delegations held extremely delicate, high level talks in Geneva, involving two major crisis theaters: Ukraine and the Middle East, the former one being relatively simpler, from the U.S. point of view.
The trilateral talks between Russian, US, and Ukrainian delegations started yesterday and are due to conclude today, marking the third round of such trilateral negotiations (the first two were held in Abu Dhabi in January this year). The U.S. delegation was led by President Trump’s usual all-star line-up: man of confidence Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Ukrainian team was led by NSDC Secretary, Rustem Umerov, and Russia’s by President Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky.
The talks are unfolding in the shadow of the ongoing war in Ukraine and President Trump’s June 2026 deadline for the two sides to reach a comprehensive agreement. They are focused on territorial questions and “practical issues and mechanics of possible solutions,” and were described as “tense.” With neither side inclined to make any major concessions to the other, there has been no significant breakthrough between the two opposed sides.
Meanwhile, Trump’s deadline increases pressure on Ukraine to yield. Russia has the upper hand in the conflict and is not dependent on American support in their conduct of war while Ukraine very much is: if U.S. support is entirely withdrawn, Ukraine’s defenses might collapse entirely, taking the Zelensky government down with them.
The fear that peace might break out has prompted the U.K. to send their own delegation to the talks, led by none other than Sir Keir Starmer’s National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell. Although the British were not invited to the talks, they turned up all the same and were seen loitering in the lobby of the InterContinental hotel in Geneva yesterday morning. The footage shows Mr. Powell literally sitting at the edge of his seat, nervously moving a teapot across the table in front of him.
Recall, almost four years ago, at the end of March 2022, Moscow and Kiev agreed on a peace settlement framework. German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu facilitated the talks. Ukraine committed not to join NATO or allow foreign military bases on its territory. The Russians agreed to recognize Ukraine’s territorial integrity and withdraw their troops from Ukraine (special arrangements were discussed for Crimea and Donbass).
The resulting agreement was very detailed and spelled out in 19 pages. At that point it seemed that both sides genuinely wanted a quick end to the hostilities and peace. Naftali Bennett would later testify that, “both sides were very interested in a ceasefire,” that both were prepared to make considerable concessions, and that a ceasefire was within reach.
That’s when Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson flew to Kiev unannounced to make sure that the peace deal wasn’t signed. As Washington Post reported on 5 April 2022, “For some in NATO, it’s better for Ukrainians to keep fighting and dying than to achieve a peace that comes too soon or at too high a price for Kiev and the rest of Europe.” Zelensky would have to “keep fighting until Russia is completely defeated.”
That was more than 1,000,000 Ukrainian casualties ago, but as far as Western powers are concerned, the logic of Ukraine war hasn’t changed, and peace remains equally unacceptable. As the bankster oligarch Jacob Wallenberg put it during the “Hanalys 2026” annual Swedish-Finnish business summit on 11 February, “We’re not ready for peace in Ukraine.” Wallenberg is the head of Investor AB, and he expressed concern that peace in Ukraine could slow down European rearmament and lead to a loss of revenue for arms manufacturers in his portfolio.
Sorry Ukrainians, nothing personal, but you’re just going to have to continue fighting and dying; our investment returns are at stake! This time, the cabal tasked Jonathan Powell to intervene. Incidentally, Powell also worked as Tony Blair’s Chief of Staff, for the entirety of his Prime Ministership (1997-2007). And since we’re already discussing this whole fine network, it’s interesting to note that it was Powell who arranged for Blair also to meet with Jeffrey Epstein.
As though all this wasn’t enough to handle, the Witkoff-Kushner dream team also held discussions with Iran yesterday, starting around 9 AM Geneva time. These talks were more delicate and indirect, mediated by Omani officials in what was described as the second round in the most recent series of negotiations. Iran was represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the talks lasted approximately three hours, wrapping up by the early afternoon.
Although both sides reported that they made “good progress,” or agreement on “guiding principles” for potential future agreements, significant differences remain between the two sides. The apparent conclusion of yesterday’s Geneva round was that Iran should submit detailed proposals to the U.S. in the following two weeks. No fixed date yet for a third round. On the ground however, the tensions are continuing to rise. Even as the two sides were holding talks in Geneva, U.S. military buildup continued while the Iranian navy held exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranians even closed the Strait for a few hours, making an obvious point: we can do this at any point and block some 25% of world oil supply. That’s only one facet of the current impasse between Iran and the U.S. that makes the situation extremely complicated for the Trump administration as it could push energy prices far into triple digits (per barrel of crude oil). And again, we have “strikes are imminent” voices in the media fanning tensions to the markets, which always have their own way of reacting.
Yesterday, the price of crude oil barely budged when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Today, however, they’re up almost 3% in pre-open trading. We’ll see how this situation unfolds but I expect that both the Trump administration and the Iranians will continue saber-rattling while avoiding an actual clash. That would be better for peace in the region, but it could still send the oil price significantly higher over the coming days.
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By Independent News Roundup