By Independent News Roundup
Andrew Korybko; Jul 16, 2025
Many are struggling to make sense of Trump’s decision to clumsily thread the needle between radically escalating US involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict and walking away from it. The preceding hyperlinked analysis concluded that he was manipulated into this by his advisors, who exploited his false expectation that Putin would agree to a ceasefire that doesn’t resolve the root security-related causes of the conflict in exchange for a resource-centric strategic partnership. This observation will now be elaborated upon.
Trump campaigned on the promise of ending the Ukrainian Conflict “on day one”, which he later admitted was an “exaggeration”. He claimed that his friendship with Putin and keen dealmaking skills would easily bring this about. In pursuit of that end, Trump tried sweet-talking Putin by blaming the conflict on Biden and Zelensky, lending credence to Russia’s claims that Ukraine’s NATO aspirations posed a threat to its security, and promising that “Crimea will stay with Russia” once the conflict ends.
To further sweeten his proposal for an unconditional ceasefire that would essentially freeze the conflict along the Line of Contact, Trump also suggested a resource-centric strategic partnership with Russia. For his part, Putin suggested the same, albeit with the intent of encouraging Trump to coerce Zelensky into Russia’s demanded concessions for peace. Nothing was ultimately achieved due to the resultant deadlock, which Trump apparently took personally, thus making him susceptible to manipulation.
After spring’s US-Ukrainian minerals deal was signed, Zelensky began more loudly talking about his earlier interest in an unconditional ceasefire, which influenced Trump into thinking that Putin is the only obstacle to peace due to the ceasefire conditions that the Russian leader demanded in June 2024. Trump had already speculated that Putin is “tapping [him] along” so Zelensky’s rhetorical reversal from pledging to fight till Russia’s strategic defeat to calling for an unconditional ceasefire was timely and strategic.
It wasn’t just Zelensky whispering in Trump’s ear that Putin was playing him but also anti-Russian hawks like Lindsey Graham and even his own wife Melania, who Trump revealed on Monday would challenge his claim of “wonderful” calls with Putin by pointing out that Russia was still bombing Ukraine. In parallel with this, the Mainstream Media claimed that Putin was “humiliating” Trump, which aimed to take advantage of his pride and desire for praise from his critics alike to push him into mission creep.
Trump’s mercantile opportunism then likely put any remaining doubts to rest about the perceived need to (clumsily) thread the needle after NATO agreed to pay full price for American weapons that it would then send to Ukraine as a means of limiting the US’ direct involvement in the conflict. From his perspective, Europe would bear the costs of further escalation and even the consequences if everything spirals out of control, thus making his new three-pronged approach to the conflict a no-brainer.
Trump was therefore manipulated into mission creep by Zelensky, anti-Russian US hawks, Melania, and the Mainstream Media each exploiting in their own way his false expectation that Putin would agree to a ceasefire-partnership deal. NATO then took advantage of his mercantile opportunism to agree to pay full price for US arms that they’ll send to Kiev. For as disappointing as this is for many, including Russian policymakers, the silver lining is that he’s still reluctant to radically escalate the US’ direct involvement.
.svg){kind=logo}
