By Independent News Roundup
Nothing significant is expected to change, and the symbolism of a Russian-friendly leader returning to power just as another in Hungary was deposed balances out the outcome of these two “battles”.
Former Bulgarian President Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition won an astounding 44.7% of the vote in Sunday’s latest parliamentary elections, the eighth in the last five years, which France24 reported “marks the first outright parliamentary majority for a single formation in Bulgaria since 1997”. That’s due to the proportional representation system after minor parties failed to secure the 4% threshold for entering parliament. The next two-highest finishers only received 13.4% and 13.2%.
RT described Bulgaria’s elections as the “Battle for Bulgaria” in the run-up to the vote. According to their assessment, the return to power of Russian-friendly Radev would deal a blow to the EU’s anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian policies due to his pragmatic approach, while his defeat would have advanced them. That said, they also acknowledged that the acting Prime Minister scandalously grandfathered in a 10-year military agreement with Ukraine, which could limit Radev’s space for foreign political maneuver.
Nevertheless, his return to power still represents a symbolic defeat for the EU, just like it can be said that outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s loss in the latest parliamentary elections that RT described as the “Battle for Hungary” in the run-up thereto represents a symbolic defeat for Russia. Similarly, just like some in Russia have downplayed the consequences of Orban’s loss for their country’s interests, so too is it expected that some in the EU will downplay the consequences of Radev’s return.
The truth, however, is that neither outcome is game-changing. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assessed that “One way or another, the EU would have found a way to unblock the funds, with or without Orban.” Likewise, even if Radev withdraws from the previously mentioned 10-year military agreement with Ukraine like he’s allowed to do through a written notification six months prior, the EU could “creatively punish” Bulgaria given the immense power and influence that the bloc wields over it.
Bulgaria is still poor and corrupt, which were the reasons why the electorate decided to return Radev to power with the country’s first parliamentary majority in nearly three decades to hopefully clean everything up, so the restriction of EU funds on corruption pretexts as punishment could hit it very hard. It wouldn’t be difficult to imagine Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition crumbling in that scenario, new elections being held, and him being deposed. He’s therefore expected to operate within certain limits.
That being the case, nothing significant is expected to change, and the symbolism of a Russian-friendly leader returning to power just as another was deposed balances out the outcome of these two “battles”. Russia and the EU will likely try to spin everything to their advantage, but the fact is that the “status quo ante bellum” remains. All eyes are therefore on Armenia’s next parliamentary elections in June since they’ll determine whether it continues pivoting to the West or recalibrates back towards Russia.
The first scenario would advance the West’s encirclement of Russia through the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” while the second could hypothetically see a return to Russia’s original role in guarding this corridor that Putin first envisaged and thus offset the encirclement scenario. Till that decisive “battle” in less than two months’ time, which will inevitably have a zero-sum geostrategic outcome, it can therefore be concluded that the EU-Russian “political war” is at a stalemate.
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