‘It’s a numbers game’–Former Māori ward councillor predicts defeat

In an interview with Joel Maxwell about the future of Māori wards, Pera Paniora, a former Māori ward councillor from Kaipara District Council, suggests that high Māori population areas like the Far North might retain their wards, but elsewhere, “it’s a numbers game.”

Paniora predicts that most of the 42 other councils with Māori wards will see them disestablished due to the referendums.

She cites the numerical disadvantage of Māori, who make up a minority of the population, as the reason she thinks will lead to the majority of the wards being defeated in October.

Paniora’s own seat was eliminated in August 2024, when Kaipara became the only council to vote (6-3) to immediately scrap its Māori ward following a law change by the coalition government.

This legislation, announced in 2024, forces councils to either abolish Māori wards or subject them to binding public referendums alongside the October 11, 2025, council elections.

If rejected in these referendums, existing Māori wards will disappear for the 2028 elections.

She notes that Kaipara cannot revisit the decision until 2031.

She argues that a vote to retain the wards “is a vote for New Zealand” but adds that if opponents disagree, they should “by all means, vote to disestablish.”

However, she advises voters to take a neutral stance if undecided.

Paniora, a lawyer and community leader, does not know if she will stand in the general ward.

Editor’s note: Paniora’s “numbers game” logic is flawed because it reduces a complex issue to demographics, sidelining the role of principles like equality, historical justice, or national identity. A majority of Pākehā wouldn’t likely back Pākehā-only wards..

Referendums aren’t just ethnic headcounts. They’re battles of ideas where Māori wards could survive if framed compellingly, not just tallied by population share.

Principles, not just percentages, will decide the outcome.

Centrist Ltd.