By elocal magazine
Despite widespread claims that New Zealanders oppose the Treaty Principles Bill, detailed analysis from theFacts.nz suggests the opposite: robust polling consistently shows ~2:1 Kiwis support the legislation, despite 90% of public submissions opposing it, and most media have failed to explain the gap.
In a comprehensive release ahead of yesterday’s second reading vote, researcher Geoff Neal lays out the polling from Curia, Freshwater Strategy, Verian, and others showing strong public backing for both the Bill’s Principles and a referendum across nearly all major voting blocs.
According to Neal, the robust polling we have available shows support is especially high among National (4:1), NZ First (5:1), and ACT voters (2:1), with even Labour and Green voters evenly split. (NOTE: a third poll testing each of the three principles individually on their final wording in the Bill suggests ACT voter support may have climbed much higher than 2:1)
Media, MPs out of step with voters on Treaty Principles Bill – data deep dive - Centrist
By contrast, select committee submissions are overwhelmingly negative – 90% opposed, mirroring patterns seen during the End of Life Choice debate which ended up succeeding in a referendum by a 2:1 support ratio. “Submission counts almost always skew heavily to those opposing proposed legislation (sticks not carrots), therefore, are not reflective of the democratic wishes of the people.” Neal argues, noting that polls and referenda better reflect public sentiment.
Neal also critiques mainstream media outlets and activist groups like ActionStation for misleading coverage and under-reporting credible polling. “If public opinion is 2:1 in favour, why does the media keep repeating that it’s 90% opposed?” he asks.
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