On Friday, 6 February 2025, President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner and the Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Admiral Brad Cooper held negotiations with Iran’s delegation in Oman. The talks didn’t go well for the U.S. side as the Iranians apparently rejected all of their demands. The only positive outcome of the talks was that the two sides agreed to continue their discussions and are due to meet again this week.
The following day, on Saturday, Witkoff, Kushner and Admiral Cooper paid a visit to the sailors of the nuclear aircraft carrier, USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) in the Arabian Sea. The ostensible reason for the visit was to thank the troops for their service amidst heightened tensions in the region.
The real reason may have been a reassurance mission. Namely, last week an Iranian drone came within striking distance from the aircraft carrier and was only shot down after an F 35 jet was scrambled to defend the vessel. The incident highlighted the vulnerability of the carrier and its 6,000 member crew at the time when they’re being readied for war against Iran.
On Sunday morning, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi gave an interview expressing his hopes that the talks will continue, but underscored that Iran’s red lines remain firm: Iran will never negotiate its defensive deterrent. Israel is demanding that the U.S. negotiators pressure Iran into dismantling their ballistic missile program and limit the reach of their missiles to 300 kilometers, so that they couldn’t reach Israel.
It’s obvious why the Israelis would want this, but it’s equally obvious why the Iranians would reject it. Iran’s most advanced missile system, Kheibar Shekan, has a 1,500 kilometers range, and a 550 kilogram warhead. Iran allegedly has 2,000 of them distributed in underground storage sites all over the country and is producing 300 of them per month.
Furthermore, China has apparently supplied Iran with advanced anti-ship missiles built to sink aircraft carriers and provided further support with satellite intel giving precise, real time coordinates of vessels within their range and technical assistance integrating these capabilities with Iranian defence systems. In all, USS Abraham Lincoln and other American ships could be extremely vulnerable in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran.
On Wednesday, 11 February, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to visit Washington D.C. again, for an unprecedented 6th visit in the last 12 months. He is expected to exert pressure on Trump to force the Iranians to give up their ballistic missile program, insisting that all negotiations with Iran must include limiting Iran’s missiles to 300 kilometer range.
Some observers expect that Netanyahu will effectively deliver an ultimatum to Trump: deliver results with the Iranians, or else… The “or else” part is that if Trump’s negotiations with Iran fail, Israel will act unilaterally and attack Iran. Which would put Trump into an impossible situation: damned if I do, and damned if I don’t. If Israel launches an attack, the Iranians will respond with all their might and could include American naval assets and U.S. bases in the region. But even if Iran doesn’t strike at American targets, Trump could find it politically impossible not to support the Israeli attack on Iran.
The pressure on Trump is now quite obvious and lends credence to claims of one Iranian MP who said that during Friday’s talks, the American negotiators were asking for a face-saving, fake campaign:
"America tried to coordinate a response with us to get out of the obligation immediately, they wanted to hit 2-3 facilities and for us to respond back in a coordinated manner, Iran refused the offer."
In other words, let’s have a fake war and we’ll handle the rest through a PR campaign. However, it appears that Iran’s stance has hardened since last summer and they’re not inclined to accept another fake American attack. Another Iranian MP, Dr. Amirhossein Sabeti, reflected the mood in Iran with a passionate speech to parliament:
What more concessions do you want to offer them [the U.S.] in order not to go to war?! Today, the Iranian nation DEMANDS a pre-emptive strike against Israel and American bases in the region! Not to show weakness and negotiate with them again.
This leaves Trump with two choices: go to war against Iran or leave Israel to cope with the consequences of its actions alone. Both choices could prove politically disastrous for the Administration.
Even if they decided to bomb Iran and the military campaign is executed perfectly with minimal damage, the collateral damage could be overwhelming. For starters, an escalation of conflict across the region is a near-certainty. The populations of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Iraq are seething with fury against Israel and if the U.S. supports the Israelis attack on Iran, that anger could overflow with unpredictable consequences.
Many of the West’s client regimes could be toppled and even the unlikely victory over Iran could prove to be a Pyrrhic one. There’s also Iran’s threat that in the event of war they would shut the Gates of Hormuz, disrupting the flow of crude oil to global markets. The barrel could skyrocket high into triple digits, stock markets could crash, and interest rates spike along with the prices of gold and silver.
The lower cost option would be to muzzle Benjamin Netanyahu and give him a clear message that if he goes it alone against Iran, Israel will be on her own. But it’s enough to spend 5 minutes watching the American mainstream TV networks to realize that Trump is facing a full-court press of officials and “expert” strategists to go to war. We’ll know more on Wednesday after Trump meets with Netanyahu. Hopefully, he’ll be able to wiggle out of the gathering train-wreck somehow. If not, we’re in for a truly bumpy ride this year.
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By Independent News Roundup