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NZ First leapfrogs ACT and Greens in latest Curia poll, reshaping coalition dynamics

By elocal magazine
Jul 16, 2025

New Zealand First has surged past both ACT and the Greens in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, placing Winston Peters’ party just shy of 10 percent and possibly signalling a shift in political leverage within the governing coalition.

The poll, conducted July 2-6, shows NZ First jumping 3.7 points to 9.8 percent. ACT remains stagnant on 9.1 percent, while the Green Party trails slightly at 9.4.

It marks the first time this term that Peters has outpaced both his junior coalition partner and his most vocal critics on the left. The numbers would give NZ First 12 seats in Parliament, ahead of ACT’s 11.

National also edged up to 33.9 percent, retaking the lead over Labour, which dropped 3.2 points to 31.6.

In terms of preferred prime minister, Labour’s Chris Hipkins has nearly closed the gap with National’s Christopher Luxon, polling 19.6 percent to Luxon’s 19.7. Peters followed at 9.3 percent, up 1.3 points. Chlöe Swarbrick polled 7 percent, while Seymour slipped to 5.7.

The governing bloc of National, NZ First and ACT would command 65 seats, compared to a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori bloc with 57. The cost of living has overtaken the economy as the top concern among voters, up 3.5 points to 21.6 percent, while health ranked third.

Read more over at The NZ Herald

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20 Comments

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StephenT

Guest

3 days ago

I don’t understand how Hipkins can be narrowing the gap with Luxon (who is doing a very poor job) but national increasing is lead with labour? Just now need NZ to hold is position and for ACT to double its and we could get a real Government.

Carol

Guest

Reply to

StephenT

3 days ago

You still trust Seymour? I find it hard to do after his forceful attitude re the Covid injections. I find him very suspect in his attitude to the public, and believe his speaks out both sides of his mouth. I may be misjudging him as I have lost trust in so many since the Covid era, doctors,police, civil service, we’ve been fed soooo many lies.

-17

Paul

Guest

Reply to

Carol

2 days ago

Yes agreed. The reason I left New Zealand is that I keep seeing a Government and bureaucracy which are udivorced from our right to free speech, expression and enquiry . Symour is pro-Israel and therefore ok with genocide. There are no ifs and buts. Pro-Israel is pro ethnic cleansing

-3

Brad

Guest

Reply to

Carol

15 hours ago

You need to move on Carol with your voting intentions in the post Covid era .. Its as simple as this, vote right or destroy the country for good under Liebore, the Watermellons and Te Pertly Maori.. You can be as precious and principled as you want, but that won’t count for anything if you dont vote or vote left.. Honestly move on for the good of NZ-no govt is perfect, but some are evil..

Peter

Guest

Reply to

Carol

8 hours ago

So is EVERY politician. VERY SUSPECT.

L.M.

Guest

Reply to

StephenT

3 days ago

Perhaps the support comes from Left voters who want a Left party in power – National, rather than in opposition such as Labour? The boost for NZF is likely to be from disaffected National voters who do not want a Left government, National and prefer to keep that in opposition, Labour.

NZ and ACT is an interesting one. Monetarist policies and practices have not caught on as much in NZ as say the US. This is why the US is a ricjh country while NZ remains MOR or poor with so many determined to a life of Soviet style grind. Or at best, fiscal policies where commerce is in the hands of the few rather than than the many. NZ is in many ways way behind the times.

The stock exchange does not even figure on finance lists. Microsoft doesn’t include the NZD in it’s currency pairing function in Excel leaving us humble ordinaries to work it out for our selves. (Not just google).

NZ is not modern, it is Leftish, tentative and frankly, suffering because of it. A generous nature by Left leaning people is tempered by frustrating the economic growth of a country that could that should be booming. Those who do make money have the gravy train ensuring investments look good. But this is not monetarism, this is passive state corporatism, the basis for fascism. And the Left are heading NZ right into this horror and people, in time will wonder who this could possibly have happened. The steamroller approach will serve this country badly.

Good morning…

Paul

Guest

Reply to

L.M.

2 days ago

And as you know L.M. State plus Corporate = Fascism. You have it coming in New Zealand > it stands out like dog’s balls > all the five- eyes countries.>

Brad

Guest

Reply to

Paul

15 hours ago

When you ran out on the country Paul, I hope you didn’t go to another 5 eyes country.. Some wish to stay and fight for the country..

Paul

Guest

Reply to

StephenT

2 days ago

Good idea, Stephen, but unlikely. New Zealand has a 50% population of conditioned zombies who still watch TV and think the death jabs are a vaccine, and Palestine bad.

-1

Anna Nicole

Guest

Reply to

StephenT

1 day ago

Absolutely, no one in their right mind would want this marxist Nazi back anywhere near the helm. Labour and these other left wing radicals should be on the scrap heap. There is is very little support for them, so where are these fabricated numbers coming from.

Peter

Guest

Reply to

StephenT

8 hours ago

Not enough working Braincells

Pete

Guest

3 days ago

No surprise that National continue to struggle. The economy remains stuck in molasses, losing our best and brightest at a worrying pace, exacerbating the problems.

Not helped at all by Willis resolutely adopting Labours basic economic strategy in a “steady as she goes” – Bill English mode but slightly different. If ever a new government needed to diverge away from the road to destruction path the previous set, it was this one. But Willis has no imagination nor qualifications in economics or anything remotely similar. Isn’t it the definition of insanity to do the same thing repeatedly expecting a different result?

They have been further undermined by having an almost fictional PM who is as popular as the previous one, the same Hipkins who participated heavily in the worst government ever seen in NZ. You’ve got serious when the current PM is as engaging as the just failed one. You know, Christopher Luxon who is so aloof and so risk adverse he is almost a ghost? Is the Hosk the only person permitted to speak to him?

Luxon either mans up, tells us what he stands for and sets a clear objective and while he’s at it, rids of the identity politics bullshit that is strangling this nation, or he stops pretending and buggers off out of politics altogether. He can’t it both ways.

jenese james

Guest

3 days ago

good its about time the two party uni party trance is stopped or at least challenged after all these two parties have been the only parties since forever and look where its got us – to this homeless poverty stricken immigration riddled place – the same old broken promises – this new generation of voters deserves something better and the elders who have a long view of history know that it has to change or nothing will – bring it on – not a fan of Shane jones though – we need more Winstons – he’s a statesman the last man standing really and he has always showed he cares for NZ the others are just new wave wanna be’s and none of them listen to the people

Last edited 3 days ago by jenese james

Jim

Guest

3 days ago

Winston for pm then shane jones next

Brad

Guest

Reply to

Jim

18 hours ago

Winston is just as likely to go to Labour (to keep TPM and the Greens out) as National.. I just wouldn’t trust him to stay right without him stating this before the election.. He put Ardern in remember, even when National was the highest polling party.. He cannot be trusted to act for all NZ, he acts for himself only..

Russ

Guest

1 day ago

Hopefully N Z First take the lions share next election and National comes in 3rd, the left loonies fall to bits and waste away on their pile of poisonous ideology

Brad

Guest

Reply to

Russ

15 hours ago

Winston swings both left and right.. He is just as likely to go left at the election (without signalling it in advance) as right.. He can’t be trusted to stay right so ACT is the only right wing party.. Winston only cares about whats in of for him, hence him anointing Ardern in 2017.. Beware..

Anna Nicole

Guest

1 day ago

I do not know where you get these figures from, but those that purport to support the green, labour and te pati rubbish party, can only be fabricated – there are very few people that support these far left radical parties.

Brad

Guest

Reply to

Anna Nicole

15 hours ago

Kiwis are often single issue voters and half the population are very low information voters.. I had a client that voted Labour in 2017 because of ‘the water’ (her exact words).. Couldn’t even explain to me exactly why or name a policy, but because of the water.. She’s no longer a client as I can’t work with idiots..

Peter

Guest

8 hours ago

Now the very important dangerous thing is :

LOWERING THE VOTING AGE TO 16 YEARS OF AGE

Do those children ( thinking they are greenies ) know anything else than the brainwashing they get in school.

Never should the voting age be lowered.

Even though the Green party would love it.

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