By Independent News Roundup
The Iranian Embassy in India reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their call on Saturday “for [BRICS] to play an independent role in halting aggressions against Iran and in safeguarding regional and international peace and stability.” He shared this proposal with him since India is this year’s rotating chair. For as well intentioned as Pezeshkian’s hope may be, it’s arguably misplaced, and he himself presumably knows so as well.
It was explained earlier in the month how “Iran’s Strikes On The UAE Exposed The Limits Of BRICS Unity”. In brief, they represent one member attacking another, but in response to the attacked member reportedly allowing a third country (the US in this case) to use its airspace and/or territory to attack a fellow member first, and thus highlighted the reality that BRICS isn’t, nor ever was, a security bloc. Modi also condemned attacks on the Gulf Kingdoms without naming Iran but obviously in reference to it.
Nevertheless, India isn’t a co-belligerent like the UAE and the other Gulf Kingdoms are, unlike what many mistakenly believe. The viral video of the Indian Army Chief admitting to backstabbing Iran by sharing the location of its ship with Israel that the US later sunk was exposed as a Pakistani AI-assisted fake, but the public’s perceptions were already manipulated by then. The same goes for Pepe Escobar’s false claim that India “backstabbed” Iran and Russia, which their ambassadors to India coincidentally debunked.
India sympathizes with the GCC and Israel, the latter of which Modi visited days before the Third Gulf War began with the US-Israeli surprise attack that assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader, just like Russia openly sympathizes with Iran per its Ambassador to the UK. Unlike Russia’s reported intel aid to Iran, however, India isn’t providing the GCC, Israel, nor the US any support whatsoever. Coupled with India’s BRICS chairmanship, this empowers Modi to mediate with the US and Israel if all sides have the will.
According to the Iranian Embassy in India’s tweet that was cited in the introduction, Pezeshkian told Modi that the conflict will only end once the US and Israel stop attacking Iran, after which there should be “guarantees” against the recurrence of their aggression and ideally a regional security framework. This is more or less what he told Putin and the Pakistani Prime Minister earlier in the month as regards his three terms for peace, which it was argued here are achievable via Russian-led creative diplomacy.
Israel and the US might not want Russia to get credit for this even if its proposals like the Collective Security Concept for the Gulf are implemented, ergo the possibility of India taking the diplomatic lead instead of Russia, but after Modi coordinates with Putin. The first step could be India getting BRICS to agree to a joint statement on the war, which is difficult given Iranian-UAE hostilities, but the precedent of the 2023 G20 Delhi Declaration amidst the Ukrainian Conflict shows that it’s not impossible.
Through these means, while BRICS itself can’t realistically end American and Israeli attacks against Iran, India’s chairmanship of the group and its neutrality in the Third Gulf War (despite its sympathies with the Gulf Kingdoms and Israel) could result in a joint statement that kickstarts Delhi-mediated ceasefire talks. To be sure, this is admittedly an optimistic scenario that might not come to pass, but it explains what Pezeshkian probably had in mind when he proposed to Modi that BRICS play a role in ending the war.
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