By Independent News Roundup
Poland and Sweden just carried out their first-ever “short-notice exercise” (SNEX) in the Baltic following the signing of a military cooperation agreement at the beginning of September. This coincides with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski warning that Poland will shoot down any Russian drones, missiles, or aircraft that enter its airspace. His words follow some Russian drones reportedly doing just that earlier in the month and Poland accusing Russian jets of violating a drilling platform’s safety zone shortly after.
The first incident was arguably caused by NATO jamming while the second – if true – might have been to gather intelligence on clandestine surveillance equipment there following reports that Poland started installing such over the summer on offshore infrastructure like wind farms. Polish-Russian tensions are therefore clearly intensifying, and the Baltic is increasingly becoming a significant theater in the NATO-Russian front of the New Cold War, especially after Estonia accused Russia of violating its airspace there.
The first-ever Polish-Swedish joint exercise should thus be seen as strengthening NATO’s containment of Russia. President Karol Nawrocki declared in his inaugural speech in August that “I dream that in the long term, the Bucharest Nine will become the Bucharest Eleven, together with the Scandinavian countries. Yes, we, as Poles, in Central Europe and Eastern Europe, are responsible for building the strength of NATO’s eastern flank. And this should also be the international, geopolitical direction of my presidency.”
Scandinavia refers in this context to new NATO members Finland and Sweden, the first of which he visited in early September during the last leg of his first foreign trip while the second is the stronger of the two and the one with which Poland just carried out its first joint military exercise. He also reaffirmed what was conveyed above about his country’s envisaged regional sphere of influence during an interview with Lithuanian media where he claimed Polish responsibility for the Baltic States’ security.
The informally Polish-led “Three Seas Initiative” officially includes the EU’s formerly communist members, Austria, and Greece but is now conceptualized by Warsaw under Nawrocki’s leadership as de facto expanding to Scandinavia (Finland and Sweden) due to their shared interests in containing Russia. The growing ties between Poland and Sweden, which were hated rivals during the 17th century after the Swedish invasion (“Deluge”) killed around 1/3 of Poland’s population, will converge more in the Baltic.
Just as Poland is expected to play a greater role in the Baltic Sea in partnership with Sweden, so too is Sweden is expected to play a greater role in the Baltic States’ security in partnership with Poland, with the Polish-Swedish Baltic duopoly aspiring to jointly contain Russia all across this front. Bases in one another’s territory (perhaps a Polish air-naval one on Sweden’s island of Gotland?) and multilateral drills between Poland, Sweden, the Baltic States, and possibly also Finland, the UK, and the US could follow.
Poland and Sweden have historical axes to grind against Russia after its imperial predecessor state was responsible for ending their Golden Ages as Great Powers. They also have a shared history of influence over the Baltic States, Sweden’s mostly being over Estonia, Poland’s mostly over Lithuania, and varying periods of control over Latvia (many don’t know that some of it remained under Warsaw’s writ until the Third Partition of 1795). This poses an emerging threat to Russia that raises the risk of war with NATO.
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