Not surprisingly, the overall tone of his speech was triumphant as he proclaimed a “golden age of America” and framed his presidency in grand historic terms, tying it to the nation’s upcoming 250th anniversary. Trump claimed that the inflation is down to 1.7%, that gasoline prices are below $2.30/gallon in most states, that mortgage rates are at four-year lows, and that the stock markets are at record highs.
Of course, he didn’t miss the chance to tout his border achievements, claiming that they are the most secure in American history, like nobody’s ever seen before. There, Trump may be closer to the truth: border patrol encounters did apparently fall to their lowest levels in over 50 years.
As far as his foreign policy record goes, the President predictably took credit for ending eight wars and brokering a Gaza ceasefire last October. Truth be told, his administration did sue for peace in a number of crisis flashpoints around the world, and Trump’s count of 8 doesn’t even include diffusing the tensions in the Balkans - perhaps the most serious threat to peace in the world. However, all these interventions still feel like temporary patches, rather than permanent peace deals. We’ll only know with time whether and where permanent peace can take root.
Gaza ceasefire might be the most controversial of these endeavors and many critics around the world see it as an abomination of international law and rights of the Palestinian people. At the same time, it is clear that Oslo Accords and George W. Bush’s 2003 “Roadmap to Peace,” which were celebrated as great achievements at the time, achieved something close to nothing, if not less than that.
At the same time, Trump does appear to be rigging the Middle East for an outbreak of war that could engulf the whole region and even precipitate a nuclear global conflict. That buildup is still on track, only slowed by plumbing issues aboard the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier.
Just before Trump’s speech, secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director Ratcliffe briefed the Gang of Eight, the eight most senior members of Congress, which was in itself a worrisome development: by law and convention, this is the group whom the executive branch must inform when a major covert operation or imminent military action are being contemplated.
Rubio and Ratcliffe held the briefing at the White House, discussing the administration’s Iran plans. Some observers noted that the very presence of director Ratcliffe in these discussions could be problematic: the CIA chief rarely joins these briefings. His presence may suggest that CIA’s active in anti-Iran operations.
The administration’s talks with Iranian representatives are scheduled to resume tomorrow, with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff having led last week’s round which failed to produce a workable deal. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer commented on the situation simply that, “this is serious” and that Trump needs to “make his case to the American people.” Senator Mark Warner called on the president to explain what the administration wants to achieve with any military strikes.
The U.S. position is that Iran cannot have any nuclear enrichment capacity whatsoever, even for civilian energy purposes. Iran’s position, stated publicly by Foreign Minister Araghchi, is that they will never give up their right to peaceful nuclear technology. Those two positions are structurally incompatible — there’s no obvious middle ground, which is precisely what makes the military option seem inevitable.
At the present time, a combination of factors — largest military buildup near Iran since 2003, failed diplomatic round last week, Gang of Eight briefing with CIA Director present, and Democrats emerging visibly shaken — paints a picture of an administration that has moved from posturing to serious pre-operational planning. Whether it ultimately results in strikes or is a high-stakes coercion play to force Iranian concessions in tomorrow’s talks is the key question. Either way, this is the most serious Iran escalation in decades, only partly overshadowed by the theater of Trump’s SOTU speech.
President Trump’s signature style can be deceptive: he is prone to exaggerating his positive achievements while minimizing failure, or even dressing it up as success. To an extent, this is understandable: Trump is also the nation’s cheerleeder-in-chief and the future of the nation may hinge on whether he is convincing in that role or not. Building a sense of achievement, optimism and bright future can galvanize the population and mobilize their entrepreneurial spirits, willingness to take risk and venture forth in a struggle for a better future.
However, Trump has also painted himself into a corner vis-a-vis Iran and he’ll struggle to disentangle himself and still look like a winner. Yielding to the Mullahs could come with a huge political cost and going to war is so fraught with risk, it could be as good as gift-wrapping this year’s mid-term elections and handing them over to the Democratic party, together with the 2028 Presidential elections. In that case, all his good achievements, real or apparent, could dissipate.
The United States could end up with a Gavin Newsome presidency for the following 4 or 8 years, which would most likely end up looking like the Justin Trudeau Prime-ministership in Canada. Trump’s approval ratings are already quite low and anything short of a victory without a fight over Iran could dent him irreparably and even the U.S. Olympic gold medal winning Hockey team won’t be able to make him look good. A huge deal hinges on tomorrow’s talks with the Iranians in Geneva.
.svg){kind=logo}
By Independent News Roundup