The Great Game

The Great Game

There have been many assessments of the Treaty (or Peace) of Westphalia (1648) and both Britannica and Wikipedia provide reasonable accounts. The definitive word on the matter, in the opinion of your's truly, is Teschke. B The Myth of 1648 which is an excellent (advanced) text concerning modern International Relations. A very close second is Kissinger, H. World Order.

In a paragraph, the Monroe Doctrine (1823) is a miniature version of the Treaty inasmuch the USA insisted on its sovereignty with no new colonialism from Britain or Europe in the region. In other words, the message was "you remain in your back yard and we (the USA) will remain in our back yard". The high-minded recommendation has never been observed; indeed ignored on numerous occasions, from the Philippines (1899), the Caribbean (c. 1915) and Central and South America during the latter 20th century; in the interests of democracy of course.

Twenty years into the new century the question "Do countries have a right to meddle in the affairs of other countries" deserves to be asked because an answer in the affirmative yielded 30 year wars (with various countries changing sides) and an answer in the negative, as per the Treaty, has provided, more or less, for global peace.

The statement by the the president of the USA, during the State of the Union Address (07Feb23) that that he seeks a cooperative relationship with China is as variance with the Biden administration and indeed has its origins with the G20 conference in Brisbane (2014) where Obama initiated the rather aggressive "Pivot to Asia". During the presidency of Mr Trump the behaviour towards Asia and the PRC, in particular with the trade wars (which caused considerable retail-hardship in the USA), speaks for itself.

China (or the PRC) has a comparable economy to the USA and its research interests in space, human cloning and telecommunications (to identity three) are also comparable to those of the USA. This aspect of relative economic and research strength is a "first" in global politics with the possible exception of Britain and Germany circa 1912. No country has been comparable on such terms with the USA since 1918. However, the principal impediment to cooperation between the USA and the PRC or Russia is the determination by the USA to expand NATO since 2004. The (so called) Third Offset Strategy of the USA is an unambiguous (i.e. overt) assertion that China is a (undefined) threat in the Pacific region. The QUAD and AUKUS are USA-inspired initiatives of "containment"; an official world in USA foreign policy.

As will be observed from the various short essays regarding Ukraine the war is at best a side-show. Putin blundered by invading the Ukraine because he already held all of the cards. His motivation for invading has been explained (non-exhaustively) in a current article. The real issue is the demise of the hegemony of the USA and its various strategies to prevent the demise; in particular the expansion of NATO.

Seldom mentioned is the economic relationships of Pakistan and India with Russia. Russia is building rail infrastructure in Pakistan and India is making no secret of its consumption of Russian crude. In this respect it could be said that India, who has already lost its autonomy in the Indian Ocean to China, is hedging its bets and may come to give more consideration to BRICS than to the QUAD.

The policy announcement by President Xi at the 19 Congress (2017) is entirely clear as to the status of Tibet, Taiwan and the South China Sea. Except for foreign intervention (Portugal and Japan) since circa 200 BCE Taiwan has been part of China. The occupancy by Chiang Kai-shek in 1949 does not make the island in anyway separate. The governance of Formosa (nowadays Taiwan) by Chiang and subsequently his son (post April 1975) was anything but democratic. The Kuomintang (or Nationalist party) have permitted democratic behaviour only since the 1990s. Becoming democratic does not make a region sovereign either.

Moreover, the division between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP; (and USA-leading party in Taiwan) and the KMT (the more pro PRC party) is about even or 50:50. Indeed, from yesterday (8 Feb) until the 17th Feb the vice chair of the KMT will visit China for meetings with officials and the PRC business community. Also, recently, a bit if cheque-book diplomacy has allayed misgivings by the Philippines over the South China Sea. The Marcos family are willing negotiators.

The expression "The Great Game" was in vogue to the beginning of the 20th century and refers to the military and diplomatic rivalry between Russia and Britain but the change in circumstance has reset the game to the USA (possibly the EU) and allies to the PRC, Russia and their allies.

Kissinger, H. 2014 World Order Penguin

Teschke, B. 2003 The Myth of 1648 Verso