By Independent News Roundup
The New York Times published a piece in late November warning that “Russian Disinformation Comes to Mexico, Seeking to Rupture U.S. Ties”. RT is predictably portrayed as the tip of the Kremlin’s propaganda spear in Russia’s infowar against the US’ soft power interests in its southern neighbor’s society. The astronomical growth of the company’s Spanish-language platform, its local partnerships, and the support that its content enjoys among some Mexican officials are presented as proof of this asymmetrical threat.
The aforesaid factors are arguably responses to the US’ own policies, not the product of so-called Russian propaganda that supposedly brainwashed Mexicans with false or twisted claims. These predate Trump 2.0’s crackdown on illegal immigrants at home, many of whom are of Mexican origin, and threat of using force (strikes and/or troops) to combat Mexico’s infamous drug cartels. The trade war also played a role too. Regardless of one’s opinion about them, they’ve turned more Mexicans against the US.
The same goes for the years-long cooperation between the CIA and the Mexican Government that Reuters reported on in September, which was an open secret among many. Republican tough-talk against the cartels during the Biden Administration, the latter indicting some leading cartel figures to the consternation of the former Mexican Government, and its prior leader’s hybrid leftist-nationalist policies had the same effect. Here are corresponding background briefings on the three preceding topics:
* 11 March 2023: “It’s Unlikely That The US & Mexico Will Ever Meaningfully Cooperate Against The Cartels”
* 19 April 2023: “Mexican-US Ties Are Deteriorating Due To Drug Indictments & Leaked Spy Reports”
* 26 March 2024: “The Outgoing Mexican President’s Policy Towards Illegal Immigration & Cartels Is A Gift To Trump”
At the same time, it’s premature to predict that end of US soft power in Mexico. While this detailed article here compellingly describes “How The Right Wing Has Used AI And Influencers To Make Up An Anti-Government Movement In Mexico”, it would be dishonest to deny that some Mexicans are truly concerned that the cartels have infiltrated their government. The CIA’s years-long role in secretly fighting the cartels and Trump’s latest threat of directly fighting them therefore do indeed have their supporters.
Thus, what appears to be happening is the bifurcation of Mexican society into diehard pro- and anti-US camps, the essence of which isn’t anything new in principle but is now importantly taking place in the new context of the global systemic transition to multipolarity. Once again, this isn’t the product of so-called Russian propaganda, but the natural outcome of the US’ own policies. The new context within which this old trend is now evolving with the times raises the risk of radicalism on both sides.
This could increase the likelihood of civil conflict, such as violence between rival protesters as well as between protesters and the state, and even tensions with the US if the Mexican Government takes a harder line towards its neighbor under public pressure or as a distraction from it. What was shared in this analysis is admittedly an oversimplification of the complex interplay between complex dynamics, but the point still stands, namely that the US’ own policies play an outsized role in shaping these processes.
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