By Independent News Roundup
Andrew Korybko;Jul 25, 2025 CET
Brazil has come under tremendous pressure from Trump in recent weeks over former President Jair Bolsonaro’s trial, bilateral trade, and BRICS. This has correspondingly taken the form of him: publishing a letter of support for Bolsonaro demanding an “immediate end” of the case against him on charges of organizing a failed coup; threatening 50% tariffs on Brazil next month despite enjoying a trade surplus with it; and possibly tacking on another 10% solely on the basis of its membership in BRICS.
The economic dimension of this newfound pressure campaign might even escalate to an additional 100% tariff if Brazil continues trading with Russia after Trump’s 50-day deadline for a peace deal in Ukraine. As CBS News reported in mid-July, “Brazil is the biggest purchaser of Russian fertilizer products, crucial to supporting its soybean, sugar and coffee exports”, so it can’t realistically cut off trade with Russia. All the tariffs will be at Trump’s discretion, however, so he could lower or even waive them if a deal is reached.
Trump doesn’t just want the charges against his friend Bolsonaro dropped, guarantees put into place for further facilitating trade with the US and preventing the transshipment of more highly tariffed countries’ goods into its market, and for co-founder Brazil to distance itself from BRICS. His goal is to subordinate Brazil as a vassal state, regardless of whoever ends up leading it after the next presidential election in fall 2026, so that it becomes the main “Fortress America” component of his “Global West” vision.
The “Global West” refers to the US-led collection of states across Ibero-America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific, with the corresponding geopolitical projects being “Fortress America”, NATO, and AUKUS+ (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, and South Korea). Brazil’s inclusion in “Fortress America” is integral to this project’s success since the failure to subordinate it, and importantly maintain this status indefinitely, would weaken US’ hegemony over the rest of Ibero-America.
That’s because Brazil is a rising pole in the emerging Multipolar World Order. This prestigious status is the result of its enormous population, impressive economy, and relative sovereignty vis-à-vis most other Ibero-American countries. Although drug cartels and their local thugs remain enduring security threats, they have nowhere near the military and political power as they do in Mexico, which is what holds Mexico back from playing the role that Brazil is also capable of and is why the US arms some of them.
The US’ plot to subordinate Brazil has flip-flopped over the years. The Obama Administration helped remove the ruling socialists after they’d grown too geopolitically independent but the Biden one helped Lula return to power after he came to embrace the Democrats’ liberal-globalist worldview while in prison as documented in the several dozen analyses enumerated at the end of this one here. The Trump Administration doesn’t just want to remove the socialists yet again but to more fully subordinate Brazil.
Hybrid warfare is the means to the end of either coercing Brazil into institutionalizing grossly lopsided trade ties with the US or suffering up to 160% tariffs for its refusal, which his meant to engineer the next election so that the socialists lose. Recent polls place Lula ahead in all scenarios if he runs again, however, so Brazilians might be patriotically rallying behind the socialists. If they can bear the pain long enough, then far from becoming the basis of “Fortress America”, Brazil might ultimately be its undoing.
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