By Independent News Roundup
This month (on 29 January) will mark the fourth anniversary of the Canadian trucking protest, or Freedom Convoy, which started in 2022 as a demonstration against a vaccine mandate for cross-border truckers but evolved into a blockade of Ottawa that protested all Covid-19 restrictions, largely paralyzing the capital and disrupting critical trade routes.
The event could prove to have been a watershed moment for Canada. One of its consequences was that it reenergized independence movements, particularly in the oil rich province of Alberta. Having visited Edmonton and Calgary every year since 2022, my strong impression was that the independence movement is very much a real deal and not a fringe, far-right fad as the media has been desperate to portray it.
While some Albertans desire independence from Canada, others wouldn’t mind it if Alberta became part of the United States. Either way, Albertans’ perception that they’re being shortchanged by Ottawa has given rise to the Alberta Independence Movement which is gaining strength as showcased in a large gathering earlier this month. Then on Wednesday this week, massive lines of Albertans turned up to sign the Independence petition - the event that’s been described as “historic” and “never seen before.”
The planned independence referendum is expected to take place this fall and it could trigger an irreversible push for the breakup of Canada which would be a fatal blow for the “rules-based global order.” South of the border, the Trump administration will keep a watchful eye for the opportunity to absorb its neighbor, its population, resources and the now strategically imperative access to the Arctic.
The very possibility that Canada, or parts of it, might become absorbed by the U.S. is a truly extraordinary event which could have tectonic consequences. Less than a year ago, Prime Minister Mark Carney categorically rejected the idea: “We will never, ever, in any way, shape or form be part of the United States... We are not America... We're a very fundamentally different country…” By today, it looks like he’ll have little control over the coming changes and his very legitimacy will increasingly be challenged at home.
Recall, Carney did not become Canada’s Prime Minister because Canadian people voted for him but simply because he’s the leader of Canada’s Liberal Party. Canada does not hold direct elections for the position of Prime Minister. Instead, Canadians vote for Members of Parliament (MPs) and the party with the majority of seats typically forms the government, with its leader becoming the Prime Minister. That’s how that “democratic” system works. In effect, Carney became Canada's Prime Minister by winning the vote of 0.27% of Canadian people.
Furthermore, as Prime Minister, he did not pledge his alLegiance to the Canadian people, but to the sovereign of another country: "I, Mark Carney, swear that I will be faithful and will faithfully serve His Majesty king Charles III, his successors and heirs. In everything, I will act as befits a faithful and true servant of His Majesty." Carney read those lines on 14 March 2025 and addressed them to the British Governor–General Mary Simon, who is the actual, ultimate governing authority in Canada. She is the representative of king Charles III and gives (or withholds) royal assent to legislation and can dissolve the Parliament at her own discretion.
In another affront to the Canadian people, on the occasion of his swearing in, Carney decorated the lapel of his suit jacket with WEF's colorful "Global Goals" pin. IT seems that the people of Canada are no longer willing to be treated as disenfranchised subjects of a foreign king and won’t be hypnotized by the hollow pomp and circumstance of a fake democracy. The genie of self-determination may be out of the bottle by now and Canada could be rapidly nearing its expiration date.
It will be interesting to watch how the markets react to the developing events. Alberta, whose independent movement is now leading, makes up about a fifth of Canada’s GDP (depending on the source, the estimates range from 15% to just over 21%. In terms of economic growth, the official Statistics Canada figures for 2024 show that Alberta contributed +0.43 percentage points to the national 1.6% real GDP growth: more than 25%.
This is largely due to Alberta’s strength in energy and natural resources sectors which could be even more important over the coming years. When successfully freed from Ottawa’s bureaucracy, Alberta will be well positioned to emerge as an economic and industrial powerhouse, attracting significant investments from its southern neighbor.
In the meantime, I expect that the tectonic shifts on the political front will have significant adverse effects on the Canadian dollar and Canadian Government Debt, which is why we added the Montreal Exchange 10-year Canadian Government Bond futures to the Key Markets report starting today (10 strategies) and next week we’ll add CAD/USD. Large-scale price events could emerge in those markets.
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