By Independent News Roundup
Col Douglas Macgregor argues that talk of “security guarantees” for Ukraine is largely unrealistic and undefined. European leaders (especially Poland’s leadership) speak as if future guarantees would mean military force against Russia, yet there has been no willingness over years of war to actually fight Russia for Ukraine. The speaker sees no evidence Europeans would suddenly do so in the future, calling such assumptions nonsense.
President Trump is portrayed as a salesman who often promises more than he can deliver, using vague language like “guarantees” without clear meaning. Privately, the speaker believes Trump understands Ukraine cannot win and must negotiate, but publicly he speaks loosely, creating confusion. Trump’s involvement in Gaza is cited as another example of overpromising without real control over outcomes.
Poland is highlighted as especially eager to tie Ukraine to strong guarantees, partly due to historical grievances and regional ambitions rooted in Eastern European history. The speaker warns that many border states are not status-quo powers and have unresolved territorial aspirations, which makes guarantees dangerous and destabilizing.
The discussion broadens into criticism of U.S. leadership and NATO: the U.S. is no longer clearly leading or disciplining allies, Trump lacks a coherent strategic vision, and key institutions like the CIA and DoD are portrayed as operating with their own agendas. Unpredictability is described as a liability in a multipolar world.
Overall, the speaker calls for realism, clearly defined commitments, predictability, and a foreign policy grounded in present realities rather than historical grudges, moral posturing, or vague promises that risk dragging the U.S. into unwanted wars—especially with Russia.
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