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Ukraine’s Army Shattered – Russia Nears the Endgame | COL. Douglas Macgregor

By Independent News Roundup
Sep 11, 2025

ASLAN KAMER

Big picture

Macgregor argues the Ukraine war is entering its final phase with Ukraine’s military collapsing, Russian operational dominance, and a likely Russian move across the Dnipro toward Kyiv and Odessa. He links this to a broader thesis: Western elites are failing at home and abroad, a severe financial crisis is imminent, and geopolitical projects in the Middle East and against China/Russia are unsustainable without U.S. power the U.S. can no longer afford.

Core claims & narrative arc

1) Ukraine war status

Casualties & collapse: He claims Ukraine has suffered ~1.8 million KIA and says the force is “disintegrating,” akin to the Wehrmacht’s final months in WWII. He estimates Russia has ~120–125k KIA and 300–400k wounded, calling losses “lopsided.”
Why losses mounted: Retreating armies take heaviest losses; on a modern battlefield dominated by ISR drones, artillery, and precision fires, withdrawal is lethal.
Russian method: Russia conducts surveil → strike (drones, rockets, artillery) → deliberate ground advance. Tanks behave more like assault guns supporting infantry to “finish” defenses and take ground.
NATO’s role: He blames NATO advice for pushing hopeless assaults against deep, surveilled Russian defenses able to mass fires quickly from ships, aircraft, and batteries over wide geography.
Russian aim: Beyond reaching the Dnipro, Russia is “vacuuming up” resistance with an annihilation strategy—destroying Ukrainian forces perceived as the backbone of a “neo-Nazi” regime. Hence high ongoing KIA as movement invites targeting.

2) What comes next

Force posture: Russia has ample manpower and volunteers; ~150k more called up. Training, leadership, and casualty care are “good”; return-to-duty rates are high vs. Ukraine’s “almost non-existent.”
Operational forecast: He says Putin likely must cross the river, enter Kyiv, and seize Odessa—both militarily and politically decisive.
Diplomacy outlook: He claims Putin no longer expects Trump to negotiate; instead he anticipates European political turnovers (France, Germany, UK) will eventually produce elites willing to disengage because the war is economically suicidal for Europe.
Security at home: Putin is described as very secure domestically (Macgregor cites >80% approval and a stable, competent government).

3) NATO, Europe, and “revolutionary change”

He predicts revolutionary political shifts in Europe (and the U.S.) because the ballot box “doesn’t work.” Early post-incumbent governments will fail by avoiding “stringent measures,” paving the way for more radical leaders.
He labels NATO exploitative, increasing danger and bankruptcy rather than protection; says politicians who still back Ukraine-in-NATO “learned nothing.”

4) Immigration, social strain, and generations

He argues high immigration (including illegal) depresses opportunities for citizens and seeds balkanization; says meaningful push for change will come from people under 40–50 who face debt, weak job markets, and displacement.

5) Imminent financial crisis

Predicts a major depression “sooner rather than later,” citing market fragility (gilts episode under Liz Truss; U.S. treasuries), opaque banking shell-games, and gold-market distortions.
Critiques bipartisan evasion, says Trump seeks popularity and hasn’t implemented promised structural reforms.
Calls the current dollar system a “virus” that indebts others and is enforced by U.S. power; sees BRICS momentum and rising European skepticism (Orban, Fico, etc.).

6) Middle East segment

Condemns mass civilian deaths as genocide; says U.S. policy is captured by a powerful Israeli/Jewish lobby tied to financial elites in London/New York (his characterization), and claims this shapes media, Hollywood, and politics.
- Important note: These assertions echo long-standing, widely criticized conspiracy frames; I’m reporting his words, not endorsing them.
Strategically, he argues regional “subjugation” depends on U.S. military power; Israel alone cannot dominate or partition Iran. The goal (as he sees it) is to control energy flows, split Iran from Russia, and encircle Iran—escalating risk without solvency.
Warns a direct clash with China would be unwinnable; the U.S. Navy (especially submarines) could throttle Chinese trade but would trigger a perpetual war.

7) Historical analogy & U.S. trajectory

Compares Washington’s elite mindset to pre-Revolutionary France: financial mismanagement, foreign policy failures, inflation, and public contempt.
Says the myth of liberal democracy is ending; governance is by the top 1% purchasing institutions.
Predicts the Ukraine war will likely fade from discourse after an unfavorable outcome, as with Vietnam, but warns the U.S. is too broke for another major war and lacks the manufacturing base that enabled recovery in the 1930s-40s.

Why this interview matters (Macgregor’s through-line)

War endgame: He frames a near-term end with Russian political-military objectives fulfilled on their terms.
Systemic strain: He connects battlefield outcomes to elite failure, economic fragility, and social upheaval in the West.
Limits of power: He argues U.S. military and financial instruments are overextended and losing coercive leverage.